A Story of the Planet Venus

Appendix 3

ICE AGE PUZZLE ?

 Contents

Introduction                                         

Extent of Ice Age Glaciers                 

    Map making                                    

Now the puzzlement starts               

    Arctic Ocean coast                        

    Beringa                                             

Antarctica Information                      

    Vostok Ice Thickness                      

 A Radical Thought ?                                                                                           

    Moving a Glacier !                                                                                           

 Finding Previous North Pole                                                                               

    South Pole Effects                                                                                          

Change of Poles Discussion                                                                               

     Assessing the Situation                                                                                 

    Beringa Changes                                                                                            

 Climate Changes?                                                                                            

    Coastline Destructions                                                                                 

Conclusions

Introduction

As most of us have been taught, our planet Earth has at one or more times been much colder than now with huge ice fields covering some areas(1). These events are referred to as Ice Ages. Animal life, including various hominids, survived by adapting and by moving to warmer climes. The kinds of vegetation changed as well. Our current period of existence is one of maximum warmth between ice ages, the previous such period having been about 110,000 years ago.

 This Appendix examines details on the ice fields of the last Ice Age and how they varied from what was expected. It then endeavours to determine the reason for that variation.

 Extent of Ice Age Glaciers

Diagrams of the extent of these ice fields at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) of 24,100 YA, in the northern hemisphere show the large Laurentian Ice Cap. It extends from the Arctic Islands of Canada southward to cover most of the Great Lakes, and from the Grand Banks off the Atlantic coast of Newfoundland, west to the Rocky Mountain Cordillera. A smaller icecap is shown covering from the Cordillera to the Pacific Ocean. Greenland is an ice mass frozen to North America.

Another icecap is shown covering Norway, Sweden, Finland, the North and Baltic Seas and part of the British Isles. Variations between articles on the topic have the North Atlantic Ocean frozen over from Greenland to Norway and Britain. Research in Finland showed moraines running east-west in the Helsinki area. A map of western Europe showing ice cover south to the Pyrenees and the Alps, is thought to have questionable supporting information.

An ice cap existed over the continent of Antarctica but it's northerly bounds are unknown as they were on the Southern Ocean and have melted away without a trace. Consequently most articles that the author has seen make little, if any, depiction of what the south part of the planet might have looked like. It's just a "white blob" in the configuration of today.

Map Making

Before going too far in this assessment, we must recognize that none of these map makers were around to measure the icecaps at their peak. They rely on sightings of bedrock that appears to have been scoured by sliding ice. Additionally they note remaining glacial features such as eskers, moraines, and drumlins(2). The blank areas in between are filled with sundry assumptions and interpolations. As for the ice thickness, that's really a guess. No diagram provides information on coverage of the oceans. The extent of sea ice on those bodies of water can only be assumed, not proven.

Now the puzzlement starts.

Most of these mapmakers do not depict ice age glaciers in Siberia or Alaska! Nothing along the Arctic Ocean shore from western Russia eastward to beyond the Bering Strait, across Alaska to near the MacKenzie River in Canada. Articles seen regarding glaciers in Siberia and Alaska, discuss small ice flows in mountainous areas, not great ice masses that cover large areas. Some authors have drawn maps with three or four massive glaciers/ice fields off-shore sitting on the continental shelf along the Siberian Arctic Ocean coast line. They speculated that since sea level was then about 125m below present, that the ice was on the continental shelf which is about 200m below present sea level. In their articles, they state that those glaciers "would have been blocking north-flowing rivers".

They posit that these ice fields, through spreading, were responsible for pushing up moraines on the shore and further inland. However their research shows that the upper parts of the shelf were and are still overlain with relatively soft deposits. The bottom does not show scouring or gouging by thick ice caused by a glacier pushing forward. The lack of evidence of glaciation on Novaya Zemlya, a large island north of western Russia, begs the question "Where did the force come from to move that ice onto the land without leaving obvious markings?" Add to that, the report(3) on Lake Elgygytgyn (White Lake in Chucki language) located in north-eastern Siberia at 670 30' N, 1720 00' E describing an impact crater with a rim of 18km diam., and a lake of 12km diam. with a depth of 174m and an age of 3.6M YA, that is declared never to have been glaciated.

Beringia

Articles written about the land bridge of Beringia between Siberia and Alaska (600 - 70° N), consider it to have been an ice-free land where creatures collected while they waited for a path to open up past the edge of the ice fields of North America. It is depicted as grass-covered and supporting people and animals year-round.

Why was North America covered by icecaps southward to 400 - 45° N and northern Europe to 52°N? At the same time, areas much further north, like 700 - 75° N in Siberia and Alaska, as well as Beringa, seemed to have escaped the ice?

Underlying this puzzlement is a belief by the author, that during an ice age, the coldest places would be at the North and South Poles. These are the places where insolation is minimal. The energy coming from the sun arrives at a shallow angle and, for part of the year, the sun does not shine on the poles at all. It is there that snow and ice would be expected to accumulate. Formulating the question differently, one can ask "What sort of weather patterns would cause massive snow and ice accumulation centred about 25 degrees off the North Pole in some areas, but not at 15 degrees off the Pole in other areas?" Would such weather include the transport of moisture and heat northwards as appears to be happening now?

Antarctica Information

The author also directed his attention to the thickness of ice in Antarctica. A map of that continent(4)  showed that today ice is thin to non-existent in the vicinity of the Antarctic Peninsula, south of South America (50° W). Conversely, the portion of Antarctica from about 40° to 160° E and 80° S to the north edge of the continent at approximately 67° S appears to have considerably thicker ice than the rest of the continent. The thickest value shown was 4776m at 70° S, 135° E extending to the ocean floor 2341m below sea level.

Recognizing that this area is about diametrically opposite to the Laurentide Ice Cap, the author transposed the co-ordinates of the bounds of the thicker part of the Antarctic ice and plotted them over the northern map. The thickest reading mentioned was directly opposite south Greenland.  40°E= 140°W,  160°E= 20°W,    80°N = 80°S,    S67° = 67°N

It must be remembered that this exercise compared an estimate of the extent of the northern ice at its maximum (LGM) 24,000 years ago, with today's actual southern ice extent when it is likely near its minimum. The northern area covered by the co-ordinates included the Arctic Ocean shore from near the Alaska/Yukon boundary, across Canada, to north of Iceland\ south to the Arctic Circle. The southern limit of the Arctic plotting relates to the ice loss from the coasts of Antarctica in the past 24,000 years of warming and its current northerly extent.

The transposing of the co-ordinates above failed to include the European icecap discussed above. Comparing that European icecap with its diametrical location down south, showed a match with today's open water Ross Sea, in which ice was frozen completely to the sea floor during the Ice Age(5). The Antarctic area has minimum ice today around the Antarctic Peninsula and on either side of it. That coastline matches the northern Arctic Ocean coast that was not glaciated, from western Russia eastward past Alaska to the Yukon River.

An interesting note on that NG map mentioned that ice cores were drilled at the Vostok site at 78.5°S, 107°E. Ice from 2200m deep was dated to 160,000 years ago. However the ice depth there is 3700m, meaning there is 1500m of ice below the ice core bottom sample point. That deeper ice is older than 160,000 years. Since that deeper ice would have undergone much more compression with repeated ice ages, an estimate for the age of the bottom ice at the rock face, might be 400,000 to 500,000 years. Other sources show ice ages occurring at approximate intervals of 100,000 years.

We are left with our puzzle of why the ice age icecaps are not centred on the poles !

A Radical Thought

Having no good ideas on how ice age icecaps can be created away from the poles, the author submits a much more radical question. "If you cannot create ice age icecaps away from the poles, how do you move the glaciers after they are formed?"      

           Answer:     "You don't.     You move the surface of the Earth relative to the poles."

                              " But is that possible?"   "What happens to things on the Earth?"

 Read on!

 Beginning in 1958 Charles Hapgood wrote "Earth"s Shifting Crust"  pub. Philadelphia: Chilton with its revised editions, followed by "The Path of the Pole"  Philadelphia: Chilton, 1970 and "Shifting Continents"  Argosy, October 1973. In them he stated "It seems that if the earth's outer shell does slide as a unit over the interior, that this (a layer of lighter rock about 160 km down), is the most likely level at which the movement can occur." [pg. 23 Earth's Shifting Crust]. He says later in that book that he does not know a specific cause for the displacement but believes it may be found in "gravitational imbalances" within the Earth. With the work presented in this Venus Story and its Appendices, the forces that caused the displacement become obvious. It was a near collision by the Venus Comet. Hapgood and others of his time misjudged the huge forces involved.

 Finding The Previous North Pole

Trying to locate a "previous pole" near the centre of mass of the northern glaciers limited the author to an estimation. In an exercise with an “uncalibrated eyeball” and the use of Google Earth(6), he used the following edge-of-ice limits around the northern icecaps: Alaska/Yukon boundary at the Arctic Ocean; Chicago, Illinois; Washington, DC; plus included the areas of the Norway/Sweden peninsula, Finland, Svalbard, Iceland and Greenland, and excluded Novaya Zemlya which seems to have no signs of ice age glaciation(7),(8). Many authors had assumed that the Arctic Ocean coastline of Siberia must have had glaciers on it and further inland. They included them in their papers but none provided supporting references. Additionally, glaciation markings have not been reported in that area. This author searched the literature for such information, but without success. Using Google's depiction of our globe and its circle-drawing-on-a-ball application, and a trial and error methodology, he finally found a point location to centre a circle that conformed to the above locations.

 The app placed the earlier position of the North Pole at today’s 65° 30' N, 51° 00’ W (on Greenland near the west coast, a little north of the capital Nuuk and inland from the port of Maniitsoq). This assumed ice-covered area had a circle of 3500km radius. This is a net change of the pole of about 25 degrees from its present position. By "net change" I allow for more than one shift but end up 25 degrees away from the starting position. My method has implicit assumptions in it, including the choice of locations. Readers are at liberty to better it. An article dated 1984 gave a south displacement of 26.3° (63° 42' N) but no longitude value.(9)

Having derived this location, the reader must pause and recognise that the author is claiming that this was the North Pole location when the ice cap was being created!

The above work to derive that conclusion requires PROOF ! This was done by dropping a line from that old North Pole location to many places on the globe. This would be a due North-South longitude line of that time period. He found many places with alignments to that “old North Pole” position. Some are tabulated in Appendix 8 - Pre 13k YA Latitudes.

 It is evident that aligning structures and properties with the existing pole, was a world-wide common practice in that period as in many places today. Owners allowed trees and other vegetation to remain along the edge of the property. It was a visible sign and was, and still is, used to restrict passage of livestock. A straight line on that heading was a sign of human intent. Trees do not intentionally line up on a longitude.

 Based on date analysis of Greenland ice cores(10), the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) was 22,148 BCE. Warming of our globe was underway during the next 11,000 years until the catastrophic encounter with the Venus Comet in 11,053 BCE.

 That solution of the North Pole locates it’s previous South Pole at 65° 30' S, 129° 00’ E which is south of Australia at the present Antarctica coastline. The thickest ice in Antarctica indicated on that NG map was only 400km from this location. Assuming the same radius of ice to encircle the "old" South Pole shows the circle just off the south coast of Australia. The circle encloses Tasmania and the south half of the South Island of New Zealand. The Ross Sea was completely within it.

 The north coast of Antarctica from today’s 49°E westward to 129°W which includes the Antarctic Peninsula, the Wendell Sea, West Antarctica and most of Queen Maud Land, was outside of the above circle and likely not buried under much ice. Finding minimal ice today at those locations is not due to severe thawing by “global warming” but to those locations having been outside the area of much glaciation. Based on readings of the ice cores at Vostok, the South Pole at this “old” location would have existed for the last five ice ages or more.

 Recent work(11) shows that the Ross Sea ice at LGM rested on the sea bottom to beyond the continental shelf edge. Bottom markings were found as deep as 1000m below present sea level. That work determined that melting was minimal to about 13kYA, stopped and several thousand years later the ice receded quickly. Not surprisingly, this finding did not match the computer modelling results of those authors’ standard assumptions!

 This idea of axial change will not sit well with those who have espoused the premise of "gradualism". It suggests a quick, massive and traumatic event that would have caused chaos world-wide. Survivors would be trying to live on whatever plant and animal life they could find. It would cause a distinct bottleneck in the development of humans and their culture on Planet Earth. It would result in the likely decimation of any previous civilisation causing the loss of skills that they possessed. Life on Earth would be knocked back to the basics of hunter/gatherer communities.

 Change of the poles

This change is thought to have taken place as part of the cataclysm of approximately 13,000 years ago. The forces available from the impact of a comet, meteorite or even an asteroid, while huge to individuals like ourselves, are vastly inadequate to twist the Earth (mass 59,724 x 1020 kg) on its axis. Halley’s comet, a large one, has a mass of only 1 in 20 billionth of the Earth. Consequently the author's thoughts are on something that was planet-sized like Earth or Venus, and did not actually impact the Earth, but passed by very closely.

 The forces, gravitational, electromagnetic and perhaps magnetohydrodynamic, that would exist between them, would twist both bodies. The result was that the mantle of the Earth rotated on the planet by sliding over the core of the Earth. Lining up the axis of rotation of the Earth with the Celestial Pole, would designate a new location on the surface of the Earth as the North Pole location. The one we presently have, resulted from the last of four FLIPs.

 When the planet Earth got "flipped" end for end on its pole of rotation the first time in 11,053 BCE, the result was that the Sun appeared to rise in the direction that was previously called West, rather than East. As discussed in the Venus Story book portion, this "flip" was repeated three more times in the next 6000 years, and there were three more changes of “Rising”. Today the Sun rises in the East.

 The Author shows in this paper that repeat encounters did take place as indicated by the Greenland ice data examination (see ref. 8). See also Appendix 1 -  Dates of Events. The populations of the Earth were held in thrall for 10,000 years. Our mythology documents were our "history". A common descriptive term is “a serpent that is flaming when it is close to the Earth”. It was also commonly referred to as the “Destroyer”.

 The author did not have the ability to test these ideas by computer simulations. Given the fear in which the Venus Comet was held in the known mythology of 6000 BCE to 1200 BCE, it was his “prime suspect”. Myths of an even earlier time pertaining to fears of some-thing in the sky, are found only in undateable folklore with similarly described physical events. The Greenland ice data previously mentioned, while not having been closely examined by the author for the period prior to 13,003 years BP, does indicate similar Venus Comet effects as early as 50,000 years BP. (Earliest data analysed and reported by NOAA.)

 If you have a better idea, let's try it out.

 Assessing the Situation

In total, several tilts of the Earth moved the past poles about 25 degrees (net results) from near today's  65° 30' N, 51°W to their present locations. This caused the daily rising of the Sun to change from what had been known as the Eastern sky to the Western sky! As mentioned above, the author has determined that there were three other events involving the "flipping" of the planet on its axis of rotation.

 After a "flip" in 6493 BCE, the morning Sun rise resumed its Easterly position. With the third "flip" at 5744 BCE, it was again greeting the people each morning from the old Western sky. The final flip took place in 4876 BCE and resulted in today's pattern of Eastern sunrises.

After each of these, all the co-ordinates of locations on the surface of the planet would also have changed.

 After a "flip" of the polar axis, there would be enormous, high tsunamis rushing out of the oceans and onto the land. They would erase people and places, washing the land bare for some distance inland. The Noah's Ark story traces to the first one and its effect, seemingly a long ways inland away from an ocean. It appears to have been much more severe and destructive than the latter three. Flooding by the later "flips" has not been distinguished in folklore. It’s telling may have been subsumed into the 11,053 BCE event.

 At this point the author must pause this description and add another feature in complexity.  When the Venus Comet came close enough to alter the Earth’s motions, its gravitational attraction would also pull the seas of the Earth towards itself in the form of a huge tidal mass. Salt water would flood existing sea shores and great distances inland. Later such events seem not to be distinguished from the Flood Story but may not have been as severe.

 Where oceans had been covered completely over with very thick ice, the author expects that the heaving of the seas from underneath broke that ice into huge, thick plates. Some of these ice plates could be driven by the inertia of the sea water onto the shores, bulldozing everything in their way. When the ice melted, moraine-like mounds would remain. In addition, flooding by increased sea level due to partial melting of the icecaps and surging tides, would increase the devastation and prevent rebuilding on old seacoast sites.

 Crustal movement has been reported at multiple locations along the west coast of North, Central and South America and elsewhere as discussed in the basic story. The Chilean coast line south of Puerto Montt seems to have dived under the continent as mountains lifted and a huge "snake-like" tsunami rolled ashore. Stories of similar events elsewhere in the world will be difficult to find if the witnesses did not survive the walls of water.

 To be clear, the author believes that the shift of the Earth's crust occurred at each of the four

"flips" of the axis. It required the transfer of a huge amount of energy between the mass of the Earth and the Venus Comet mass. The physics of a fast rotating body in space indicate that the axis of such a body having been reversed or flipped, could exactly realign with its previous position but with the polar positions reversed. He refers to the known North Pole locations as pre-13kYA, Intermediary (post 6493 BCE) and Current (post 4876 BCE). He has not succeeded in identifying the North Pole locations after the initial 11,053 BCE event and the 5744 BCE event.

 Beringia Changes?

These global adjustments of the earth's rotation required reassessing my views on migrations of people and animals into North America from Asia. The so-called "land bridge" of Beringia between those two land masses was simply a verdant land on which some people and animals lived. Nobody was migrating anywhere as the MacKenzie River valley route into North America, was restricted by the Ice Age icecap all the way to the Arctic Ocean. As discussed on the previous pages, walking from Asia to Alaska was moving northward to that old pole, and into a pocket enclosed by mountains and ice.

 At the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), sea level appears to have been about 125m below the current level. It is estimated that sea level before the catastrophe of 13,000 years ago might have risen to 90-100m below today due to the first 10,000 or so years of warming since the LGM. Currently 30m of water depth covers the highest areas of the bottom of the Bering Strait(12). This would leave the highest areas in Beringia, other than today's islands, with no more than 70m elevation above sea level at the time of the flood.

 People and creatures living on Beringia, perhaps in the climate of about 45°N (remember the tilt of the Earth changed), would be wiped out by the flooding water. Salt water would destroy any grazing areas. Additionally the "chill" of being shifted to 65°N was combined with the relocation of the orbit of the Earth to further from the Sun. The Younger Dryas Period of very cold weather (about 1500 yrs) followed immediately. Refilling of Beringia with grasses and then animals and finally people likely took 2000 years or so. Migration to North America might not have been reestablished for 3000 years or more. See Appendix 7 - Coming To America - Long Before Columbus for a more detailed study on this "migration".

 Climate Changes?

Solving this Ice Age Puzzle led to other thoughts, in particular, "What did survivors do to cope with the devastating changes?" That cold weather mentioned above would be eased somewhat north of Norway and Sweden. However in Asia north of the equator, it would be accentuated by the relocation of the north pole. The change brought that area northward and closer to the new pole position. Siberia at the Arctic Ocean would move from about 45°N to the new Arctic Circle at 660N.

 South American locations would be chilled as they moved closer to the south pole by 25° of latitude, Tierra del Fuego from 31°S (present day La Serena, Chile) to 56°S.  Australia, New Zealand and New Guinea would be moved northward to the equator with a net warming of the climate. Research has found that mountains on Sumatra and Borneo show signs of glaciation about 10,000 YA(13). China would move north to cooler temperate zones(14). Africa would rotate counter-clockwise around around a point on the equator east of Lake Victoria. It would likely have climate changes such as rainfall, monsoon changes and possible crustal distortions. Did the Great Rift Valley, Red Sea, Dead Sea rupture widen?

 The much colder climate brought on in the Younger Dryas Period by the Earth's orbit being moved farther from the Sun, would be in addition to all of the above.(15)

 Present day understanding of our oceans and atmosphere is that their motions are fuelled by energy from the sun with all being relative to the orientation of the pole of rotation. Sunlight, wind and precipitation of moisture would change worldwide with the change of the surface of the planet relative to that pole. Seasons would be altered to various degrees.

 A major change would be the devastation of all of the coastlines and islands by the rushing  bodies of water as the Earth shifted its axis of rotation. As it is today, a substantial portion of the world population is thought to have lived by the sea, with a maritime trading network. Stored goods like food stocks would be destroyed. Manufacturing, such as it was, likely was mainly in those communities, and it would be gone. Trade would be reduced to animal-carried goods. The survivors would have to reinvent food creation, building, shipping and overseas trade, in fact much of their lives. The ice caps continued to melt as the Ice Age ended so that between then and about 5000 BCE, there was a large increase in sea level. Those coastal areas world-wide are now submerged by up to 90m of water and very difficult to explore.

 Conclusions

People shifted location for food and climate reasons. The ancient culture of Samarra, later known as Sumer, moved from their original territory, north of the Black and Caspian Seas, and the Caucasus, southward into the warmer lands of southern Mesopotamia where they were able to reestablish their cultivation of grains and herding of animals. They also moved to the Indus Valley and became known as the Harappian Civilisation, and into Europe seemingly as the Proto-Indian Empire (PIE) under various names.

 The forests and savanna of the Sahara began drying out and their people moved west, south and east over the course of several millennia. Some were stranded in desert conditions. Others settled in grasslands on the edge of jungle. The travellers to the east found the Nile River with its fertile delta and river banks likely by 5000-4000 BCE, and thrived. They brought with them a grain and milling culture plus livestock herding. Central Africa lost its warm moist climate as the monsoon patterns changed dramatically, causing a desiccation of its pastoral grasslands.  Other areas likely were affected but their period and location has not been well studied or reported on.

 Farming would be non-existent where salty sea water had flooded the land and soaked in, making famine certain. In these conditions, losing the crops of one year plus stored foods would trigger disaster. Given human nature, lawlessness and the taking of scarce resources from others by theft or war, would occur.

 We are descendants of the survivors. Whether they were lucky, clever or simply strong, we are their progeny.

 The thoughts of others on these ideas would be most welcome.

(1)  “An Urgent Signal for the Coming Ice Age”  by Peter Harris, Retired Engineer, April 2008

(2)  Land forms of sand and gravel, created by glaciers and revealed when the glacier melted.   Esker - A ridge-like mound deposited in a river that ran under a glacier.   Drumlin - A rounded mound like an inverted pot-hole. Also created in a subglacial river.  Moraine - The ridge of material that was pushed/ploughed ahead by the advancing glacier. It was left standing when the glacier retreated.

(3)  R.F. Dietz 1977 "Elgygytyn Crater, Siberia, Meteoritics June 1977, Vol. 12 pg 145-157

(4)  National Geographic "Atlas of the World", revised sixth edition 1992. Sheet 102

(5) John B. Anderson et al (2013) "Ross Sea paleo-ice sheet drainage and deglacial history during and since the LGM"

(6)  Used Google Earth app to draw a smooth circle on the surface of the globe. Required selecting a centre point and a radial line from that centre. By trial and error movements of both, the circle was adjusted until it passed very closely through the points named. Latitude and longitude of the centre, and length of the radial line were displayed.

(7)  Ice-free conditions in Novaya Zemlya 35,000–30,000 cal years BP, as indicated by radiocarbon ages and amino acid racemization evidence from marine molluscs    Jan Mangerud et al,  pg 188  ... Polar Research 27 2008 187–208 © 2008. Those Authors state   "In the present study we assume that the entire Novaya Zemlya archipelago was ice-covered during the LGM, as was concluded by Zeeberg et al. (2001) and Svendsen, Alexanderson et al. (2004). We emphasize that this assumption can be neither supported nor falsified with the material used in the present paper."

(8)  "Something else very strange - in Novaya Zemlya" by Brian John, website Stonehenge and the Ice Age  2018-11-14

(9) “Tiahuanaco and the Deluge”, Theory Workshop by Helmut Zettl   Catastrophism and Ancient History, Vol. VI

Part 2     July 1984,  A Journal Of Interdisciplinary Study, Marvin Arnold Luckerman,  Executive Editor   pg 8

(10)  Alley, R.B..  2004  “GISP2 Ice Core Temperature and Accumulation Data.”   IGBP PAGES/World Data Center for Paleoclimatology Data Contribution Series #2004-013. NOAA/NGDC Paleoclimatology Program, Boulder CO, USA

(11)  John B. Anderson et al (2013) "Ross Sea paleo-ice sheet drainage and deglacial history during and since the LGM"

(12)  National Geographic "Atlas of the World", revised sixth edition 1992. Sheet 29

(13)  Heaney, Lawrence R. (1991). "A synopsis of climatic and vegetational change in South-east Asia". Climatic Change. 19: 53–61.    “Snow was found much lower than at present (approximately 1,000 meters lower) and there is evidence that glaciers existed on Borneo and Sumatra around 10,000 years before present.”

(14)  See Appendix 2 - Serpent & Dragon Lore  - China

(15)  "Venus - The Late Arriving Planet"  pg 12.   by John M. Collins 2019